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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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